Where diabetes is rising fastest

Greater Manchester's diabetes prevalence has risen every year for four consecutive years, from 7.51% in 2021–22 to 8.17% in 2024–25. That's 215,918 adults on the diabetes register across 407 GP practices — and the gap with the national average has widened in each period.

England's overall rate has climbed too, from 7.10% to 7.89%. But Greater Manchester has consistently tracked higher, and the divergence is accelerating. In 2021–22 the gap was 0.41 percentage points. By 2024–25 it had grown to 0.28 — a widening that represents roughly 7,400 additional patients above what the national trend would predict.

The average hides enormous variation

An 8.17% average across Greater Manchester is already a blunt instrument. At practice level, the range is dramatic: from 1.04% at a city-centre surgery with a young registered population, to 24.61% at a specialist care home practice.

Most practices cluster between 4% and 12%, but the tail extends far. The highest-prevalence practices are concentrated in areas with older populations and higher levels of deprivation — Rochdale, Oldham, Bolton.

Where the burden concentrates

Greater Manchester's ten Sub-ICB areas show a clear gradient. The northern boroughs — Oldham, Bolton, Heywood Middleton & Rochdale — cluster above 9.5%, while southern areas like Trafford and Manchester sit below 7%.

Oldham's rate of 9.58% is nearly 43% higher than Manchester's 6.70%. That's the difference between one in ten and one in fifteen adults on the register — within the same integrated care system. For any technology targeting diabetes management, the market looks profoundly different depending on which borough you're in.

The national picture

Greater Manchester isn't an outlier nationally. At 8.17%, it ranks roughly sixth among England's 42 integrated care boards. The highest-prevalence areas are in the Midlands — Black Country at 9.12%, Birmingham & Solihull at 8.85%. But the broader pattern is geographic: the north and midlands carry a systematically higher diabetes burden than the south.

For MedTech companies targeting diabetes, this pattern matters. The areas with the greatest clinical need — and therefore the strongest case for adoption — are also the areas facing the most constrained budgets. Understanding this geography is essential for realistic market sizing and commissioning strategy.

What this means

A rising diabetes register creates demand across the full pathway: point-of-care diagnostics, continuous monitoring, digital self-management, prescribing analytics, and workforce tools. The practices under most pressure aren't the large urban ones — they're mid-size practices in former mill towns with high deprivation and ageing populations.

For anyone building an evidence base for a diabetes technology — whether for a NICE submission, an NHS adoption strategy, or a grant application — the variation documented here is the starting point. National averages won't hold up in a commissioner meeting. Borough-level evidence will.